Modelling the Hydrology of an Upland Catchment of Bystra River in 2050 Climate Using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Emission Scenario Forecasts

This article presents selected flow modeling indices of the Bystra River catchment area (east Poland) obtained using SWAT model simulations for three regional climate models driven by EC-EARTH global 2021–2050 and both RCP4.5 RCP 8.5 scenarios. The research was due to large relief terrain, predominance soils made loess agricultural nature area, which is very sensitive change, has valuable soils, can be used as a test land use-based adaptation measures change. calibration validation SUFI-2 algorithm in CUP program carried out order determine water balance. After obtaining satisfactory results, SWAT-CUP simulated best parameter values change projections. In analyzed projections, monthly mean sums actual evapotranspiration potential will higher compared simulation period 2010–2017 model. exception month June, where most projections lower years 2010–2017. average total runoff basin 2021–2030 months reference period. Also, 2031–2040 2041–2050 periods, 4.5 scenarios (except one scenario 2031–2040). Additionally, case two 2041–2050, years. We that analysis impact result 31 recognized different small sub-catchments River, from precipitation less 2041–2050. All above changes individual components balance may have negative on vegetation coming decades. temperature increase variable amount lead an increased number extreme phenomena. Increased sum evapotranspiration, well runoff, disturb studied at every stage growth. also influence soil (especially during growing season). Counteracting effects future requires various measures.